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NATIONAL SECURITY THREAT: An official said that Guan Guan’s comments had gone beyond the threshold of free speech, as she advocated for the destruction of the ROC   By Wang Kuan-jen, Chen Yu-fu and Sam Garcia / Staff reporters, with staff writer

China-born media influencer Guan Guan’s (關關) residency permit has been revoked for repeatedly posting pro-China content that threatens national security, the National Immigration Agency said yesterday.

Guan Guan has said many controversial things in her videos posted to Douyin (抖音), including “the red flag will soon be painted all over Taiwan” and “Taiwan is an inseparable part of China,” while expressing hope for expedited “reunification.”

The agency received multiple reports alleging that Guan Guan had advocated for armed reunification last year.

Chinese social media influencer Guan Guan is pictured at Machangding Memorial Park in Taipei in an undated photograph. Photo: screen grab from Guan Guan’s Douyin page

After investigating, the agency last month issued a notice requiring her to appear and account for her actions.

Guan Guan appeared as required, but the agency determined she threatened national security and social stability, it said.

The agency revoked her residency permit in accordance with Article 14 of the Measures for the Permission of Family-based Residence, Long-term Residence and Settlement of People from the Mainland Area in the Taiwan Area (大陸地區人民在台灣地區依親居留長期居留或定居許可辦法), it said.

Guan Guan reportedly left Taiwan on Friday last week.

Sources said that Guan Guan came from Guangdong and married a Taiwanese man, but they have since divorced. To avoid a government investigation, she last year removed controversial videos from Douyin and changed her Internet handle to “Little Chili Pepper” to avoid attention, sources said, adding that social media users discerned that she was the same person.

Under the name “Little Chili Pepper,” Guan Guan continued to post pro-China, anti-Taiwan content.

After her residency was revoked, she filmed a video angrily accusing Minister of the Interior Liu Shyh-fang (劉世芳) and High Prosecutors’ Office prosecutor Chen Shu-yi (陳舒怡) of being Taiwan independence supporters, alluding to an announcement by China’s Taiwan Affairs Office earlier this month that it had designated Liu, Chen and Minister of Education Cheng Ying-yao (鄭英耀) as “diehard Taiwan independence advocates.”

Guan Guan said in the video: “When Taiwan is liberated, I will reunite with my daughter and let her know she is a proud Chinese.”

An official speaking anonymously said yesterday that supporting the use of force to invade Taiwan, advocating for the destruction of the Republic of China (ROC) or making statements that undermine the sovereignty of the nation are all unacceptable, adding that these actions go against the original purpose of coming to Taiwan.

“You were allowed to come and live here, so how can you turn around and harm the people here?” the official asked.

The official said that the comments Guan Guan made have gone beyond the threshold of free speech, as she advocated for the destruction of the ROC.

Since she does not recognize this land, and is unwilling to live peacefully and prosperously with Taiwanese, her residency permit was revoked and she was “sent back to China,” the official said.

title: Chinese social media influencer’s residency revoked


content_text:
The Supreme Court yesterday rejected appeals by Reunification Alliance Party members Chang Tsun-feng (張存逢) and Huang Jung-te (黃榮德), upholding their prison sentences for espionage and electoral fraud.

Chang and Huang, who were the chairman and chief executive officer of the pro-Beijing party’s Pingtung branch respectively, were indicted in February last year for accepting instructions from China’s Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) to help infiltrate Taiwan’s presidential and legislative elections.

Chang and Huang in September and October 2024 allegedly accepted requests by TAO officials to treat Taiwanese voters to discounted trips to China’s Hainan and Shanxi provinces, the Pingtung District Prosecutors’ Office said.

The Supreme Court in Taipei is pictured in an undated photograph. Photo: Chang Wen-chuan, Taipei Times

Members of the tour groups only had to pay NT$18,500 for plane tickets, transportation in Taiwan, insurance and administrative fees, while the rest was paid by the Chinese government, it said.

Upon landing in China, they were greeted by Hainan Provincial Federation of Taiwan Compatriots president Xing Yiwen (邢詒文) and vice president Liu Fang-ying (劉芳穎), as well as officials from the United Front Work Department of the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee, the indictment said.

The Chinese government paid for their expenses including meals, tours, visits, accommodation and transportation in China, while the Chinese officials allegedly promoted “united front” rhetoric, such as “both sides of the Strait are one family” and a “peaceful unification” during their tour and at meals, it added.

On Dec. 23, 2024, in a general assembly of the party’s members at its Pingtung branch, Chang and Huang tried to solicit votes for specific presidential and legislative candidates, the indictment said.

They were later found guilty by the Pingtung District Court for contravening the Anti-Infiltration Act (反滲透法), and the Presidential and Vice Presidential Election and Recall Act (總統副總統選舉罷免法), and were each sentenced to four years and six months in prison.

They both appealed the verdict, but the Kaohsiung Branch of the High Court dismissed the appeal.

Chang and Huang appealed again, but the Supreme Court yesterday dismissed the final appeal, finalizing the conviction.

title: Reunification Alliance appeal fails


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A high-speed train derailed and was hit by another in southern Spain, killing at least 39 people and injuring more than 120, authorities said yesterday.

It was the deadliest train accident since 2013, when 80 people died after a train veered off a curved section of track outside the northwestern city of Santiago de Compostela.

The crash happened on Sunday evening when a train operated by rail company Iryo traveling from Malaga to Madrid derailed near Adamuz in Andalucia.

A firefighter and members of the Civil Guard yesterday work next to one of the trains involved in an accident near Adamuz, Spain. Photo: Reuters

It crossed onto the other track, where it crashed into an oncoming train, which also derailed.

Spanish Minister of Transport and Sustainable Mobility Oscar Puente said at least 39 people died, warning that the toll was “not definitive” and could still rise.

“I want to express my deepest gratitude for the tremendous work of the rescue teams throughout the night, under very difficult circumstances,” he said on social media.

About 123 other people were injured, including five very seriously and 24 seriously, the Spanish Ministry of the Interior said.

Unlike the 2013 accident, the derailment took place on a straight part of the track which had been completely renovated, Puente said.

The first train to derail was “practically new,” making the accident “extremely strange” and “very difficult to explain,” he said.

Rail experts “are very surprised by this accident,” he added.

Iryo said that the locomotive was built in 2022 and last inspected on Thursday last week, adding that it “veered onto the adjacent track for still unknown reasons.”

About 300 people were on board its service from Malaga to Madrid, the company said.

Renfe, the operator of the second train, has not said how many passengers were on the service, which was traveling to Huelva.

Emergency services said they struggled to free the hundreds of passengers trapped in the wreckage.

“The problem is that the carriages are twisted, so the metal is twisted with the people inside,” Francisco Carmona, head of firefighters in Cordoba, told public broadcaster RTVE.

“We have even had to remove a dead person to be able to reach someone alive. It is hard, tricky work,” he said.

A passenger on the second train who gave only her first name, Montse, told Spanish public television that the train jolted, “came to a complete stop and everything went dark.”

She described being thrown around in the carriage at the back end of the train and seeing luggage tumble onto other passengers.

“The attendant behind me hit her head and was bleeding. There were children crying,” she said. “Luckily, I was in the last car. I feel like I was given a second chance at life.”

In Taipei, the government yesterday expressed its condolences to Spain.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that its representative office in Madrid had so far found no Taiwanese injured or killed in the accident.

The ministry said that it has also asked the office to convey the condolences of Taiwanese and the government and concern over the incident to Spain.

Meanwhile, the ministry advised Taiwanese in Spain who require emergency assistance to call the representative office at 639-384-883, or ask family members in Taiwan to contact the ministry’s all-hours toll-free emergency hotline at 0800-085-095.

Additional reporting by CNA

title: High-speed train collision in Spain kills at least 39


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Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi yesterday said that she would dissolve parliament this week ahead of a snap election on Feb. 8, hoping for a stronger mandate to push through her ambitious policy agenda.

The nation’s first female leader is banking on her high poll numbers to lead the unpopular ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to victory.

“Is Sanae Takaichi fit to be prime minister? I wanted to ask the sovereign people to decide,” she told a news conference. “Following the dissolution of the lower house on Jan. 23, the schedule will be set for campaigning to start on Jan. 27, and voting and counting held on Feb. 8.”

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi holds a news conference at the Prime Minister’s Office in Tokyo yesterday. Photo AFP

The LDP has governed Japan almost uninterrupted for decades, albeit with frequent leader changes.

Takaichi was appointed prime minister in October last year and her Cabinet is riding high in the polls despite her party’s flagging popularity.

The ruling bloc — which includes coalition partner the Japan Innovation Party — has only a slim majority in the powerful lower house of parliament.

That could hamper the passage of her policy agenda, including “proactive” fiscal spending and boosting the defense budget.

“If the LDP can get a majority by itself in the lower house, that will help her pursue policies” without concessions to other parties, said Sadafumi Kawato, professor emeritus at the University of Tokyo.

Takaichi’s Cabinet approved a record ￥122.3 trillion (US$775 billion) budget for the fiscal year from April, and she has vowed to get parliamentary approval as soon as possible to address inflation and shore up the world’s fourth-largest economy, but opposition parties say Takaichi’s plan to dissolve the lower house risks delaying its passage, with Jun Azumi of the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan saying it would “sacrifice livelihoods.”

Masaaki Tokuno, a 64-year-old bicycle lot manager, said that “carrying out policies to tackle inflation should be first, before holding the election.”

The LDP is weighing campaigning on a possible cut to tax on food, to ease the pain of soaring costs at the grocery store, reports said.

A snap election might also help Takaichi break the deadlock in a spat with China, increasing her leverage by showing she has strong support at home, analysts said.

Ties between Tokyo and Beijing have deteriorated since Takaichi suggested in November last year that Japan could intervene militarily if China ever launched an attack on Taiwan.

However, Mikitaka Masuyama, dean of the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, said that if she wins, China could further intensify pressure on Takaichi.

Beijing might want to send voters “the message that supporting a hawkish leader could lead to pain” through more trade controls or other means, Masuyama said.

China announced a broad ban on exports to Japan of “dual-use” goods with potential military applications and has reportedly been choking off exports of rare earths crucial for making everything from electric vehicles to missiles.

According to a poll by the Asahi, 60 percent of people surveyed said that they were worried about the impact of a worsening Japan-China relations on the economy.

title: Japanese PM calls election to seek stronger mandate


people: 黃仁 卓榮泰 鄭麗君

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MIXED REACTION: Some welcomed the lower tariffs, on par with levies on other major US trade partners, but others worry the agreement could ‘hollow out’ Taiwan

Premier Cho Jung-tai (卓榮泰) yesterday greeted the nation’s US trade negotiation team when they arrived at Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport, commending them for the tariff reduction and investment agreements they reached with the US.

Led by Vice Premier Cheng Li-chiun (鄭麗君), and chief trade negotiator and Minister Without Portfolio Yang Jen-ni (楊珍妮), the team hashed out a “substantive” and “meaningful” deal with Washington, which was announced on Thursday, Cho told reporters at the airport.

Cheng said the trade agreement proved that “the hard work of the Taiwanese people, along with Taiwan’s technology and industries, had become a key force in the world,” and showed that the world needs Taiwan.

From right, chief trade negotiator and Minister Without Portfolio Yang Jen-ni, Premier Cho Jung-tai and Vice Premier Cheng Li-chiun are welcomed at Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport yesterday, after the delegation returned from Washington. Photo: Chu Pei-hsiung, Taipei Times

The trade negotiation team returned after reaching a preliminary agreement with the US to reduce tariffs on Taiwanese goods to 15 percent, and a commitment that Taiwanese semiconductor and technology companies would invest at least US$250 billion in the US.

The figure includes a US$100 billion investment pledge by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC) last year, weeks after US President Donald Trump took office, US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick said on Friday.

That implied that TSMC’s US$65 billion investment to build three advanced wafer fabs in Arizona prior to Trump’s return to office last year was not taken into account.

Taiwan has also agreed to provide up to US$250 billion in credit guarantees for financial institutions to support investments in the US market by the semiconductor industry, and the information and communication technology sector.

The terms of the agreement are to be signed in the coming weeks as part of a formal trade pact, which would require the approval of the Legislative Yuan.

Reactions to the agreement have been mixed, with some welcoming the tariff reduction from 20 percent to 15 percent — the same rate applied to Japan, South Korea and the EU. However, others — including members of the opposition — have raised concerns that the deal could force companies such as TSMC to move too much of their production abroad, effectively “hollowing out” Taiwan.

The agreement does not include a timetable for when Taiwan’s investments must be realized.

TSMC chief financial officer Wendell Huang (黃仁昭) said the company was accelerating its investments in Arizona because of high customer demand.

Even with its growing presence in the US, TSMC’s most cutting-edge technology would remain in Taiwan for “practical reasons,” Huang said, citing the intensive collaboration process between the company’s research and development team and operations units.

title: Cho praises returning trade team


title: KMT asks Cabinet to submit impact report

content_text:
QUESTIONS:  The Cabinet must also answer where funding would come from, and how it plans to deal with the impacts and safeguard the competitiveness of the chip industry

The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) caucus yesterday demanded that the Executive Yuan submit a comprehensive industry impact assessment regarding a US$500 billion investment plan in the US.

The Cabinet on Friday said the US has agreed to lower tariffs on Taiwanese goods from 20 percent to 15 percent, without stacking them on existing most-favored-nation rates, and to grant the nation’s semiconductors and related products most-favorable treatment under Section 232 of the US Trade Expansion Act.

The deal includes a pledge that Taiwanese semiconductor and technology companies would invest at least US$250 billion in the US, and an additional US$250 billion credit guarantee from the government for other investments.

From left, Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) lawmakers Lin Pei-hsiang, Lo Chih-chiang, Lai Shyh-bao and Wang Hung-wei hold placards during a news conference in Taipei yesterday. Photo: Liao Chen-huei, Taipei Times

In response to opposition parties’ concerns that Taiwan is trading US$500 billion in investments for a reduced tariff rate, Minister of Economic Affairs Kung Ming-hsin (龔明鑫) said the US$250 billion company-led investments and the credit guarantees are different forms of capital, and that lumping them together was like comparing “apples with oranges.”

Unconvinced, the KMT caucus demanded that the Executive Yuan submit a comprehensive industry impact assessment report.

The report must include the deal’s its impacts on Taiwan’s GDP, the semiconductor supply chain and the labor market; spillover effects on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), and traditional industries; and an assessment of national fiscal and financial risks, the KMT said.

The KMT caucus also demanded that the Executive Yuan answer three questions, and submit the full details of the negotiations to the Legislative Yuan for formal review and oversight.

First is where the funding for the credit guarantees would come from, and how associated risks would be managed and controlled.

Second, the Cabinet must answer how it plans to safeguard the core competitiveness of the semiconductor industry, as the government had promised to keep advanced chip manufacturing processes in Taiwan, but the deal would shift 30 percent to 40 percent of production to the US.

Third is to explain how the deal would impact SMEs, traditional industries and domestic job opportunities, as well as how it plans to deal with the impacts.

KMT caucus secretary-general Lo Chih-chiang (羅智強) said that half a century ago, the KMT-led government had planted the “great tree” of Taiwan’s high-tech industry for the benefit of all citizens, but now the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) government is not only enjoying the shade under this tree, but has also begun to chop it down.

Now, it is not only Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC) that is moving away, but the entire high-tech supply chain, he said, adding that in five, 10 or 20 years, “the great tree will be gone.”

“What will become of Taiwan’s next generation by then?” he said, adding that he found it difficult to understand how the DPP government could gleefully cheer for the result of the trade negotiations.

KMT Deputy Secretary-General Lin Pei-hsiang (林沛祥) said the US$500 billion investment by Taiwan in the US semiconductor industry is equivalent to more than 60 percent of the nation’s annual GDP.

“Who will shoulder the risk of such a massive guarantee, and who will be held accountable if the investments fail?” he said. “This is not ‘reciprocal cooperation’ [with the US], but a substantial hollowing out of our country.”

That is a national security crisis far more perilous than the declining birthrate, energy shortages or even cross-strait relations, Lin said.

KMT caucus deputy secretary-general Wang Hung-wei (王鴻薇) urged the government to address the impact of the massive investment, as it should not crowd out domestic investment.

With 40 percent of Taiwan’s “silicon shield” — TSMC — about to be relocated to the US, the government must face the issue of securing the future employment of 300,000 semiconductor industry workers, she said.

people: 林沛祥 羅智強 王鴻薇


content_text:
The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) yesterday declined to retaliate against former Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) chairman Ko Wen-je’s (柯文哲) criticism, as the two parties continue to eye cooperation ahead of the local elections in November.

At a TPP event on Sunday, Ko called KMT Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an’s (蔣萬安) decision to provide free school lunches to all elementary and junior-high school students, rather than only those who have financial needs, “populist governance.”

Ko also dismissed the city’s free milk for students program under Chiang — who succeeded him as Taipei mayor in 2022 — as a useful way to deceive voters, saying it had no real significance.

Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Deputy Chairman Hsiao Hsu-tsen, right, speaks during a radio interview with show host Anne Wang in Taipei yesterday. Photo: Screengrab from BCC News Radio’s YouTube channel

The Democratic Progressive Party’s failure last summer to recall 31 KMT lawmakers and one TPP mayor was partly due to public anger over his indictment and pretrial detention in a corruption case, Ko said.

The 32-0 result was because many people “voted to save A-bei (阿北),” he said, using his nickname.

Without the recall defeat, he would likely still be locked in the Tucheng Detention Center, he added.

However, despite their win, the KMT should not overestimate its own power, Ko said.

Asked about Ko’s statements, KMT Deputy Chairman Hsiao Hsu-tsen (蕭旭岑) said in a radio interview that Ko is “straightforward and outspoken” by nature, which sometimes rubs people the wrong way.

Nevertheless, it is true that without the support of TPP voters, “the KMT would not have made it through the recall,” Hsiao said, adding that people should not “react emotionally” to what Ko said.

“Ko was giving a friendly reminder and also stating a fact: The KMT’s inability to win the 2024 presidential election was also largely due to the lack of blue-white [KMT-TPP] cooperation,” Hsiao said.

Meanwhile, Chiang said his free school lunch policy would ease the burden on working families, adding that Ko “has many opinions on many issues.”

Ko’s comments came on the same day the TPP released its policy platform for the this year’s local elections on Nov. 28.

TPP Chairman Huang Kuo-chang (黃國昌) had said a joint agenda with the KMT has been largely drafted and is awaiting the KMT’s ratification.

The two opposition parties, which jointly hold a majority of seats in the Legislative Yuan, announced in November last year that they would seek to collaborate on policies, candidates and strategies to maximize their chances in the local elections.

people: 蔣萬安 柯文哲 黃國昌

title: KMT brushes off Ko Wen-je’s criticisms of the party


title: TPP’s Huang accused of confidentiality rule breach

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Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) lawmakers yesterday condemned Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) Legislator Huang Kuo-chang (黃國昌), saying he breached the rules by leaving a legislative committee meeting with classified materials on the military budget.

The Legislative Yuan’s Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee held a confidential meeting yesterday morning, during which Minister of National Defense Wellington Koo (顧立雄) reported on the NT$1.25 trillion (US$39.57 billion) special defense budget.

“It was fortunate that we realized what was happening and were able to get Huang to return the documents,” DPP Legislator Puma Shen (沈伯洋) said.

Taiwan People’s Party Chairman Huang Kuo-chang, left, looks on as Minister of National Defense Wellington Koo, center, shakes hands with Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Legislator Chen Yeong-kang during a meeting of the Legislative Yuan’s Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee in Taipei yesterday. Photo: Liao Chen-huei, Taipei Times

Committee chair DPP Legislator Wang Ting-yu (王定宇) had earlier reminded legislators not to leave with documents, as that would contravene the Rules of Procedure of the Legislative Yuan (立法院議事規則), Shen said.

Huang said that after leaving the meeting, he realized he had accidentally mixed in confidential materials with other documents.

“I immediately walked back to the room to return the documents. The whole incident lasted less than 30 seconds,” Huang said.

DPP Legislator Michelle Lin (林楚茵) said that during the meeting, all lawmakers signed a nondisclosure agreement.

Huang has been a legislator for some years, so his claim that he had accidentally taken classified materials out of a secret meeting is hard to believe, she said.

Saying it only took 30 seconds is not a good defense, as regulations clearly state that classified materials may not leave the committee room, Lin said.

Huang’s actions were serious, and in accordance with the rules, the incident would be reported to the Disciplinary Committee, which would assess the situation and mete out the appropriate punishment, she said.

people: 顧立雄 黃國昌 王定宇 林楚茵


title: Taiwan helping immigrants with writing system

content_text:
The government understands the need for educational support for “new immigrants,” Minister of Education Cheng Ying- yao (鄭英耀) said yesterday, following media reports about a complaint on having to use traditional Chinese characters.

“New immigrants” is a legal term that refers to foreign, including Chinese, nationals approved for long-term residence in Taiwan, whether through marriage or other residency categories.

A woman from China married to a Taiwanese posted online that writing traditional Chinese characters was “bothersome,” local media outlets reported.

Minister of Education Cheng Ying-yao speaks to reporters in Taipei yesterday. Photo: Rachel Lin, Taipei Times

The woman expressed hope that Taiwan’s “reunification” with China would allow the use of simplified Chinese characters, they reported.

Asked about the issue, Cheng said that Taiwan is a multicultural society and that the needs arising from cross-border marriages are “understandable.”

Children of “new immigrants” who learned simplified Chinese characters would need assistance after coming to Taiwan, in their daily lives and in school, he said.

Traditional Chinese characters are Taiwan’s official writing system, and the Ministry of Education has long worked with local government education bureaus to help children of immigrants and foreign students adapt to learning and daily life in Taiwan, he said.

Education bureaus and departments across the nation provide transitional learning programs, as well as language counseling and assistance, he added.


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SPEND LOCAL:  Domestic travel spending reached NT$515.8 billion in 2024, a more than 30 percent increase from 2019, and is expected to continue growing this year

Chiayi City, Miaoli County and Tainan have higher average hotel booking rates during the Lunar New Year holiday than other administrative regions, the Tourism Administration said yesterday.

Chiayi City, Miaoli County and Tainan surpassed other administrative regions with higher average hotel booking rates — at 55.91 percent, 51.32 percent and 49.55 percent respectively — during the first eight days of the holiday, which this year begins on Feb. 17 and is to last nine days.

The average hotel booking rate nationwide is 38.33 percent.

All three regions usually have higher booking rates during the holiday, with Chiayi also receiving tourists visiting Alishan Forest Railway and other areas, the agency said.

The average rates also exceeded the national average in New Taipei City, Taichung, and Nantou, Chiayi and Taitung counties.

Hotel booking rates in most cities and counties are higher from Feb. 17 to Feb. 19, agency data showed.

The Tourism Administration said it would release updated data two weeks before the holiday, as most Taiwanese prefer to book their trips close to the start of the break.

In other news, domestic travel spending by Taiwanese reached NT$515.8 billion (US$16.33 billion) in 2024, more than 30 percent higher than 2019, the agency said.

The growth momentum continued last year and is expected to persist this year, it said.

The agency estimated that 222.03 million trips were taken by domestic travelers in 2024, a 31.36 percent increase from 2019.

In the first three quarters of last year, 186 million domestic trips were recorded, a 12.57 percent increase from the same period in 2024, it said.

The data showed that domestic tourism is gradually becoming more balanced throughout the year, it said.

The growth in domestic tourism did not raise accommodation costs, with the average room price at hotels and bed-and-breakfasts (B&Bs) was NT$2,960 per night in 2024, NT$35 less than in 2023. The average room price last year fell further to NT$2,954.

The average room price at a B&B was NT$2,405 in 2024, down from NT$2,509 in 2023.

During the first six months of last year, a room at a B&B cost NT$2,442 on average, down from NT$2,481 during the same period in 2024.

The agency also responded to complaints about high room costs in Taiwan.

Accommodation costs vary by region, time of year and room size.

Hotels and B&Bs are often perceived as expensive during major holidays or at popular tourist destinations, but that view could change when looking at annual average prices or rates during weekdays and off-peak periods, the Tourism Administration said.

Instead of spending multiple days traveling domestically during major holidays or on long weekends, more Taiwanese prefer to take frequent short-distance trips on weekends or short holidays, it said.

That change has shifted domestic tourism from a few peak periods and major attractions every year to more varied locations throughout the year, it said.

title: Holiday hotel booking highest in Chiayi


content_text:
GIVE AND TAKE:  Blood demand continues to rise each year, while fewer young donors are available due to the nation’s falling birthrate, a doctor said   By Hsu Li-chuan,Tang Shih-ming and Esme Yeh / Staff reporters, with staff writer

Blood donors can redeem points earned from donations to obtain limited edition Formosan black bear travel mugs, the Kaohsiung Blood Center said yesterday, as it announced a goal of stocking 20,000 units of blood prior to the Lunar New Year.

The last month of the lunar year is National Blood Donation Month, when local centers seek to stockpile blood for use during the Lunar New Year holiday.

The blood demand in southern Taiwan — including Tainan and Kaohsiung, as well as Chiayi, Pingtung, Penghu and Taitung counties — is about 2,000 units per day, the center said.

TSG Hawks cheerleader Kaya, center, poses with a blood donation mascot, left, and Taiwan Black Bear Conservation Association mascot Heibao at a news conference in Kaohsiung yesterday. Photo: Hsu Li-chuan, Taipei Times

The donation campaign aims to boost the region’s blood reserves from seven days to 10 by Lunar New Year’s Eve, it said.

The center this year continued its collaboration with the Taiwan Black Bear Conservation Association using the association’s mascot “Heibao” (黑寶) in the design of limited-edition stainless steel travel mugs, which are available in exchange for three points earned by donating blood, the center said.

People can earn a point by donating 250ml of blood and two points for 500ml, it said.

Center doctor-in-chief Tseng Shih-pin (曾士賓) said that donating blood not only can save people, but also boosts a donor’s metabolism.

While Taiwan’s blood donation rate is high, often ranking among the highest in the world, donations fall in the winter, likely due to cold weather and students going home for the winter break, Tseng said.

Donations from young people have decreased over the past few years amid a falling birthrate and aging population, while blood demand continues to rise, he said.

Blood consumption tends to spike around Lunar New Year, which this year is to last nine days, due to falling temperatures and increased hospital visits by people with cardiovascular or gastrointestinal diseases, Kaohsiung Department of Health Director-General Huang Chih-chung (黃志中) said.

Blood stocks could be critically low during the holiday, Huang said, urging people to donate.

To encourage young people to give, the center recruited TSG Hawks outfielder Wang Po-hsuan (王博玄) and TSG Wing Stars cheerleader Kaya (昆昆) to be the campaign ambassadors in the city.

Separately, the Changhua County-based Rong Hua Charity on Sunday raffled off bottles of gold accessories, valued at NT$6,000, as prizes for people who donated 500ml at a blood drive in Changhua City.

The event attracted hundreds of donors.

A man surnamed Wang (王) from the county’s Puyan Township (埔鹽) said that he and his wife arrived at about 4am to be first in line, hoping to win a prize.

The gold accessories come in shapes such as Chinese-style ingots, coins and lucky turtles.

Other raffle prizes included mobile phones, dehumidifiers, vacuum cleaners, headphones and gift vouchers worth up to NT$1,000.

The Taichung Blood Donation Center on Sunday also held a blood drive with the goal of amassing 60,000 units this month.

The city has about four days of blood in reserve, with only three days’ worth of type A and type O blood supplies, far below the secure inventory level of 10 days, the center said.

If the blood supply is not increased, it might be unable to meet the demand of central Taiwan, which amounts to 1,800 units per day across Taichung and Changhua, Nantou and Yunlin counties, it said.

Additional reporting by Tsai Shu-yuan

title: Kaohsiung offers bear mugs to blood donors


title: Man arrested as suspect in killing of parents

taiwan-subdivisions: 蘆洲 新莊 三重

content_text:
A man surnamed Liao (廖) was arrested in New Taipei City last night on suspicion of killing his elderly parents on Saturday.

The parents, who ran a scallion pancake stall in the city’s Lujhou District (蘆洲), were found dead in their living room on Sunday, after police responded to a call from a family member who said she had not been able to reach the parents since Saturday evening, police said.

Witnesses said that the suspect was seen leaving his parents’ house in a hurry shortly after 9am on Saturday, police said.

A man surnamed Liao, center, is escorted by police in New Taipei City last night for questioning after his parents were found dead in their home on Sunday. Photo: Lu Yun-feng, Taipei Times

The father, 67, was stabbed 24 times, with the most severe injuries to his neck and hands, and each wound deep enough to reach the bone, police said.

The mother, 75, had been struck on the head with a heavy object, resulting in a severe skull depression, and had 13 stab wounds, all deep enough to expose the bone, police said.

Following surveillance footage, the police said they found Liao’s motorcycle in an alley in Sanchong District (三重), and discovered a machete in the bike’s compartment, which police said they suspected was the murder weapon.

At about 6pm yesterday, Liao was arrested by patrolling officers in Sinjhuang District (新莊).


title: Kindergarten and parents must pay over child injury

content_text:
By Tsai Chang-sheng and William Hetherington / Staff reporter, with staff writer

The parents of a Hsinchu County boy and a kindergarten have been ordered to pay NT$300,000 to the parents of a female student who the boy allegedly injured.

According to a Dec. 31 ruling by the Hsinchu District Court, the old boy allegedly crawled under the classmate’s blanket during nap time and “grabbed at and pinched” her genitals for nearly half an hour.

The girl’s mother said she learned about the incident while preparing to bathe the girl that evening, when she discovered blood on her underwear, court documents showed.

The Hsinchu County District Court is pictured in an undated photograph. Photo: Tsai Chang-sheng, Taipei Times

A medical examination revealed an abrasion on her right vulva, the documents showed.

An investigation found that the caregiver at the kindergarten was not present when the incident occurred, constituting a dereliction of duty, the court said.

The girl’s parents filed a civil case against the boy’s parents and the kindergarten, demanding NT$600,000 in compensation.

The court ruled in favor of the girl’s parents, awarding half of the amount they sought.

Although the caregiver had failed in their duty to protect the girl, the boy’s parents were also liable, because they are responsible for educating and supervising their child to maintain boundaries regarding others’ bodies, the judge said.

As the boy was only seven years old he could not be held legally responsible for the behavior, and therefore the parents should bear joint liability for compensation, ruling said.

Additionally, as the caregiver was caring for more than a dozen children on their own at the time of the incident while also trying to eat, it was not possible for them to detect the behavior in a timely manner, and they could not be held fully liable, the judge ruled, citing findings from the investigation.

The ruling may be appealed.


title: Six-year-old flood survivor thanks rescuers

content_text:
A six-year-old girl pulled from a flooded home during last year’s devastating Mataian River (馬太鞍溪) flood yesterday thanked the search-and-rescue team who saved her.

At a Firefighter’s Day ceremony in Pingtung County, the girl, nicknamed Hsiao-yi (小沂), told her rescuers she wanted to become a firefighter when she grows up.

Floodwaters from an overflowing Mataian River barrier lake swept into Hualien County’s Guangfu Township (光復) on Sept. 23, killing 19 people, stranding dozens and causing widespread destruction.

Hsiao-yi, center, holding a teddy bear over her face, poses with firefighters Lin Kai-cheng, right, and Hung Po-hsuan at an event in Pingtung County yesterday. Photo: Lo Hsin-chen, Taipei Times

Pingtung’s special search-and-rescue team from the county’s Bureau of Fire Emergency Services were among the first outside of Hualien to respond, rescuing 64 people, including Hsiao-yi.

At the time of the incident, her parents had informed the rescuers that they had not heard from the child or her grandparents, who she was with inside their home, which was heavily affected by floodwaters and mudflows.

With floodwaters reaching nearly one story high, her grandparents lifted her to a wooden roof beam, awaiting rescue.

Video of the scene, which went viral online, showed the rescuers breaking through the roof to pull the girl out of the house.

Her grandparents died in the disaster.

Pingtung County Commissioner Chou Chun-mi (周春米) presented Hsiao-yi with a teddy bear version of the Pingtung rescue squad, while the girl gave the team flowers and a handmade thank-you card.


content_text:
Nearly 39 percent of respondents in a National Communications Commission (NCC) survey said they had upgraded from 4G to 5G because they changed their contract or got a new phone.

The percentage of 4G users upgrading to 5G has increased in the past few years, from 25.5 percent in 2023 to 38.7 percent last year, the survey showed.

The percentage of 4G users who continued to subscribe to 4G service plans fell from 72.1 percent to 60.1 percent, NCC data showed.

A person uses their smartphone to take a photograph during a news conference in Taipei in an undated photograph. Photo: CNA

The majority of respondents said they switched to 5G because they signed to new contracts with their carrier or received a discount with the purchase of a 5G-capable device, it showed.

While the reasons were the same as in 2023 and 2024, the percentage rose from 54.3 percent in 2023 to 70.7 percent last year.

The survey also found that 23.8 percent of respondents switched from 4G to 5G because they were dissatisfied with 4G speeds, up from 22.2 in 2023, while 23.7 percent said 5G services were necessary because they regularly watched videos, up from 15.2 percent in 2023.

Other reasons include satisfaction with 5G service plans (23 percent), seeking experience with 5G technology (20.1 percent), using 5G to play video games (18.2 percent) and using 5G for videoconferencing (8 percent).

Seventy-four percent of 4G users said they saw no need to upgrade to 5G, up from 70.8 percent in 2023, while 48 percent said that 5G services are more expensive, up from 31 percent in 2023.

Other reasons causing 4G users to hesitate to switch included that 5G has yet to become a well-established technology (12.7 percent) and the need to purchase new mobile phones (9 percent), the survey showed.

On a scale of one to 10, 4G users ranked the service 7.7 for data transmission speed and coverage rates, while 5G users ranked their service 7.9 and 7.6 in the respective categories.

That satisfaction for 4G users potentially explained their reluctance to migrate to 5G, the NCC said.

The survey, performed last year, also found that a majority of telecom users still preferred to subscribe to unlimited data plans without speed throttling for certain usage, although the percentage had fallen from 63.2 percent to 56.6 percent. Those subscribing to unlimited data plans with a speed cap after certain usage rose to 16.7 percent from 13.1 percent in 2024.

title: Nearly 39% of 4G users switched to 5G last year: NCC


content_text:
A 10th-anniversary exhibition of the Jiaming Lake National Trail (嘉明湖國家步道) is to open at Just Arts House in Taitung County tomorrow, focusing on the ecological engineering methods used to design the trail and its volunteer-aided construction process.

The Forestry and Nature Conservation Agency’s Taitung branch in 2016 adopted eco-engineering methods to repair and rebuild the trail, as climate change and an increase in hikers posed challenges to the high-elevation trail that could not be overcome through traditional measures.

At a preview exhibition in Taipei last week, branch Director Wu Chang-yu (吳昌祐) said that frost heaving following a rainfall or snowfall is common on high-elevation mountains and could affect trails’ structures.

Volunteers repair a trail leading to the Jiaming Lake National Trail in an undated photograph. Photo courtesy of the Forestry and Nature Conservation Agency

Runoffs formed by precipitation could also erode trails, he said, adding that constant monitoring and maintenance is required to ensure safety.

The trail is about 12.6km long with its elevations ranging from 2,300m at Siangyang National Forest Recreation Area (向陽國家森林遊樂區) to about 3,200m at Jiaming Lake Cabin.

Heavy construction machinery cannot be easily transported to such high-elevation environments, making the manual rebuilding of the trail a more practical and eco-friendly alternative, Wu said.

Over the past few years, many hikers joined the “1kg per person” campaign to carry 1kg of construction materials, such as soil or stones, during their hikes from the recreation area to designated sites along the trail, he said.

Materials stacked at designated sites could be used for maintenance when needed, he said, adding that many volunteers developed an emotional connection with the trail through maintenance activities.

The exhibition aims to highlight the coexistence of humans and nature, and teach more people about the spirit of eco-craft trails, Wu said.

The trail is not just a path to the lake, but also intertwined with the environment of the Bunun people, he said.

The branch this month launched a program to train local indigenous people on eco-craft trail construction, expecting them to use the skills and knowledge to help maintain local mountain trails, he said.

That would not only create extra income for them, but would also give them a sense of achievement as they contribute to their hometown by maintaining the trails, he said.

Thousand Miles Trail Association deputy director-general Hsu Ming-chien (徐銘謙) said he had never been to the lake, although he had been assisting in rebuilding the trail.

“I’m invariably on the way to Jiaming Lake, and the repair work has not ended,” he said.

The exhibition is expected to inspire more people to help with the eco-craft trail rebuilding while they are hiking the trail, he added.

The exhibition is to run through Feb. 20, with the venue closed from Lunar New Year’s Eve to the fourth day of the Lunar New Year.

title: Exhibition showcases Jiaming Lake eco-craft trail


title: Winter’s back

content_text: People in winter clothing cross a street in Taipei yesterday. A strong continental cold air mass arrived in Taiwan late last night, potentially sending temperatures in some low-lying areas down to as low as 8°C from tomorrow through Friday, the Central Weather Administration said yesterday, adding that rainfall is also forecast to peak from last night through today.


content_text:
CONSTRAINED MARKET:  Memorychip shortages across the globe have affected prices for their products as the company plans record-high capital expenditures

DRAM chipmaker Nanya Technology Corp (南亞科技) yesterday said it expected chip prices to climb further this quarter due to supply constraints, which helped boost the company’s net profit last quarter as it skyrocketed by a factor of six.

To mitigate supply scarcity, the company plans a record-high capital expenditure of NT$50 billion (US$1.58 billion) this year, more than tripling from NT$13.4 billion last year, to push the construction of a new plant, it said.

The new plant is to enter volume production in the first half of next year, Nanya Technology president Lee Pei-ing (李培瑛) said during an earnings conference.

Nanya Technology Corp’s logo is pictured in front of the company’s headquarters in New Taipei City on July 3, 2024. Photo: Grace Hung, Taipei Times

The company expects to have monthly capacity to manufacture 20,000 12-inch wafers by the first half of 2028, he said.

“Artificial intelligence [AI] servers and general-purpose servers are driving DRAM demand in 2026. Supply shortages are to persist for multiple DRAM products, such as DDR5, low-power DDR5, DDR4, low-power DDR4 and DDR3,” Lee said.

Demand would be fueled by adoption of high-bandwidth and high-density memory chips for more cloud-based and edge-based applications, he said.

The AI boom is driving demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips and crowding out supply of less advanced DRAM chips such as DDR4 and low-power DDR4, Lee said, adding that he expected DRAM supply to grow mildly this year and next year.

Nanya Technology’s chip shipments are estimated to grow 10 percent this year following an increase of 50 percent last year, Lee said.

About 70 percent of the company’s shipments are DDR4 and low-power DDR4, which face the tightest supply worldwide, he said.

Micron Technology Inc’s acquisition of a DRAM plant from Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp (力積電) is not likely to sway the DRAM supply-demand situation this year and even in the first half of next year, as it would take time for Micron to buy equipment to support its chip technology, Lee said.

With only a small portion of its chips shipped directly to the US, Nanya Technology has no plans to build a plant there, he said.

DRAM price hikes are expected to endure this quarter to support the company’s gross margin improvement, though the pace would be less than the 30 percent increases in the fourth quarter last year, Lee said.

The company yesterday reported net profit ballooned to NT$11.08 billion in the fourth quarter of last year, compared with NT$1.56 billion the previous quarter and a net loss of NT$1.57 billion a year earlier.

Earnings per share rose to NT$3.58 from NT$0.5 a quarter ago and losses of NT$0.51 per share a year earlier.

Gross margin jumped to 49 percent, from 18.5 percent in the third quarter and minus-10.6 percent a year ago.

For the whole of last year, Nanya Technology showed a net profit of NT$6.6 billion from a net loss of NT$5.08 billion in 2024. Earnings per share improved to NT$2.13 from the previous year’s losses per share of NT$1.64.

title: Nanya expects chip prices to rise


title: Economic outlook rosy with AI boom and tariff fix

content_text:
TICKING ALONG:  Global demand for what Taiwan offers and eased tariff tensions have the economic outlook for this year looking strong, economic researchers said

Taiwan’s economy is projected to expand 4.14 percent this year, driven by strong global demand for artificial intelligence (AI) hardware that continues to boost exports and imports, the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER, 中經院) said yesterday.

The forecast is an upward revision of 1.59 percentage points from October last year, reflecting an optimistic outlook for the nation’s export-led economy, CIER president Lien Hsien-ming (連賢明) said at a news conference in Taipei.

“The forecast does not yet account for the recently concluded Taiwan-US tariff negotiations, which are expected to have a positive impact on traditional industries, technology and investment,” Lien said.

Chunghua Institution for Economic Research president Lien Hsien-ming speaks to reporters in Taipei on Sept. 2, 2024. Photo: Hsu Tzu-ling, Taipei Times

Improved US policy clarity has already bolstered sentiment toward Taiwan’s technology sector, as seen in ongoing TAIEX rallies, Lien added.

Uncertainty over potential semiconductor tariffs had weighed on investment and the equity markets.

A key feature of the trade deal is a bilateral investment framework under which the US agreed to strategic technology cooperation with Taiwan across major industries, Lien said.

The arrangement is expected to benefit not only the semiconductor sector, but start-ups and emerging industries as well.

For manufacturers in traditional industries, the deal delivers a long-sought advantage. Tariffs on Taiwanese goods exported to the US are set to fall from 20 percent to 15 percent, bringing Taiwan onto equal footing with competitors such as Japan and South Korea for the first time in more than a decade, CIER said.

Exports are forecast to reach US$760.8 billion, an 18.75 percent increase from last year’s record high, providing solid support for economic growth, CIER researcher Peng Su-ling (彭素玲) said.

This year’s GDP growth would feature a more balanced structure, with domestic demand contributing 2.42 percentage points and external demand adding 1.72 percentage points, Peng added.

Cathay United Bank Co’s (國泰世華銀行) chief economist Lin Chi-chao (林啟超) said the growth outlook could rise as export momentum in the electronics sector grows.

Taiwan’s leading electronics companies might see revenue growth exceed 25 percent, approaching 30 percent, pushing electronics exports to at least US$600 billion for this year, Lin said.

When combined with contributions from non-electronics industries, exports could surpass US$760 billion, he said.

If adjustments to automobile tariffs turn out more favorable than expected, domestic consumption could receive an additional boost, further supporting economic expansion, he added.


content_text:
Nvidia Corp’s GB300 platform to lead AI servers for this year

Nvidia Corp’s GB300 platform is expected to account for 70 to 80 percent of global artificial intelligence (AI) server rack shipments this year, while adoption of its next-generation Vera Rubin 200 platform is to gradually gain momentum after the third quarter of the year, TrendForce Corp (集邦科技) said.

Servers based on Nvidia’s GB300 chips entered mass production last quarter and they are expected to become the mainstay models for Taiwanese server manufacturers this year, Trendforce analyst Frank Kung (龔明德) said in an interview.

This year is expected to be a breakout year for AI servers based on a variety of chips, as shipments of graphics processing unit (GPU)-based rack systems — including Nvidia’s GB300 and Vera Rubin 200 platforms, as well as Advanced Micro Devices Inc’s MI400 — are set to accelerate, while cloud service providers (CSPs), such as Google Inc, Amazon Web Services and Meta Platforms Inc, are expected to step up use of application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC)-based AI infrastructure, he said.

Visitors listen to the introduction of NVIDIA GB300 NVL72 AI server during the Hon Hai Tech Day at the Nangang Exhibition Center in Taipei, Nov. 21, 2025. Photo: AP

As development of GPU and ASIC-based servers accelerates this year, the threshold for system integration among local server manufacturers is rising, Kung said.

Hon Hai Precision Industry Co (鴻海精密), Quanta Computer Inc (廣達) and Wistron Corp (緯創) are some of the Taiwanese server system integration suppliers for overseas tech giants.

The challenge is becoming more pronounced as major CSPs continue to develop ASICs with increasingly advanced and customized specifications, a trend that further raises technical barriers to entry for manufacturers, he said.

GB300 is one of Nvidia’s Blackwell GPU series, with modest upgrades compared with the GB200 across connectors, substrates and thermal components, while the Vera Rubin 200 platform features a significant increase in GPU power consumption, analysts said.

High power consumption in AI servers based on Nvidia chips, coupled with the CSPs’ continued upscaling of AI data centers, results in a growing need for liquid cooling solutions this year, TrendForce analyst Fiona Chiu (邱珮雯) said.

As the market’s heat dissipation solutions remain concentrated on liquid-to-air designs — which serve as a transitional phase between traditional air cooling and full liquid cooling — liquid-to-air systems are still expected to dominate AI infrastructure deployments this year, she said.

Fully liquid-to-liquid cooling solutions are expected to become more prominent next year as data center power density continues to rise, she added.

The developments would benefit Taiwanese liquid-cooling solution providers, with heat dissipation specialists such as Auras Technology Co (雙鴻科技) and Asia Vital Components Co (奇鋐科技) poised to strengthen their positions in the market, Chiu said.

Power supply solution providers such as Delta Electronics Inc (台達電) and Lite-On Technology Corp (光寶科技) are also expected to gain market share with their power supply and infrastructure-related products, she added.


title: Apple phone shipments jump in China after slump

companies: Apple 台積電

content_text:
Apple Inc reclaimed the top spot in China after iPhone shipments jumped 28 percent year-on-year during the holiday quarter despite a memorychip shortage, according to Counterpoint Research.

The iPhone 17 series of devices drew consumers, with Apple’s handsets accounting for one in every five shipments in the December quarter, the research firm estimated. That growth came at the expense of Huawei Technologies Co (華為) and Xiaomi Corp (小米), both of which experienced double-digit percentage declines. Overall, shipments in the world’s largest smartphone arena fell 1.6 percent from a year earlier during the final quarter of last year.

From Micron Technology Inc to Xiaomi, a growing number of companies are warning about the uncertain impact from a growing deficit of the semiconductors used to store data on devices. That shortage, which arose after memory makers devoted more of their capacity to high-end memory for Nvidia Corp artificial intelligence chips, is driving prices higher while squeezing undersupplied smaller players.

A woman uses her smartphone inside the Apple store in Beijing`s Sanlitun area as the new iPhone 17 series smartphones go on sale in Beijing, China September 19, 2025. Photo: Reuters

“Looking ahead, memory prices are expected to rise further, increasing by 40 percent to 50 percent in Q1 2026, followed by an additional increase of around 20 percent in Q2 2026,” Counterpoint analysts said. “Smartphone OEMs are expected to optimize their product portfolios, with a particular focus on scaling back low-end models to preserve margins.”

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (台積電) CEO C.C. Wei (魏哲家) highlighted the uneven impact of the memory crunch last week, saying high-end smartphones remained largely unaffected. Apple, whose entire lineup resides in the upper tiers of the market, is showing greatest resilience. A new round of Chinese consumer subsidies is helping alleviate cost pressures on manufacturers, Counterpoint said.

For the calendar year, Apple came in slightly behind Huawei at the top of China’s shipments ranking, with each taking roughly a 17 percent market share. Apple’s shipments last year climbed 7.5 percent year-on-year. One blemish on its record was the novel iPhone Air, which launched later in China than elsewhere and sold poorly.

“The iPhone Air underperformed,” Counterpoint analyst Ivan Lam (林科宇) said. “The late launch and trade-offs between thinness and the feature set resulted in a slow start.”


title: Chinese economy sees slowest growth in decades

content_text:
China’s economy grew at one of the slowest rates in decades last year, according to official data released Monday, as officials struggle to overcome persistently low consumer spending and a debt crisis in the country’s property sector.

While the five percent expansion was in line with Beijing’s annual target — a low-ball figure analysts have compared to a political comfort blanket — observers warned it was driven largely by exports and masked weak sentiment on the ground.

In a sign of the work ahead for leaders, the data showed a significant slowdown in the final quarter of last year, growing at 4.5 percent year-on-year as expected. In quarterly terms, the economy grew 1.2 percent in October to December.

People walk past historical buildings located on the Bund in Shanghai on January 19, 2026. China`s economy grew at one of the slowest rates in decades last year, according to official data. Photo: AFP

“The impact of changes in the external environment has deepened,” an official with China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Kang Yi (康義), said.

“The domestic contradiction of strong supply and weak demand is prominent, and there are still many old problems and new challenges in economic development,” he told a news conference in Beijing.

Policies and measures to boost consumption would continue into this year, Kang said, including a trade-in scheme for old household appliances.

“The gradual implementation of policies to clear unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector will support consumption growth,” he said.

Figures on Monday showed annual growth in retail sales, a key indicator of consumption, slowed to 3.7 percent last year from four percent in 2024, while the reading for last month was 0.9 percent on-year — the weakest pace since the end of 2022, when stringent COVID-19 countermeasures ended.

Industrial output expanded 5.9 percent last year, a slight slowdown from the previous year, while the 5.2 percent increase seen last month was an improvement on November’s pace.

Fixed-asset investments shrunk 3.8 percent last year, reflecting a rebalancing following decades of heavy spending on property and infrastructure.

The broader housing market remains sluggish, with real estate investment down 17.2 percent last year, the data showed.

The re-election of US President Donald Trump in January last year and the revival of a fierce trade war between the world’s two largest economies added to Beijing’s problems.

Official data showed Chinese exports to the US plunged 20 percent last year, but that had little impact on demand for Chinese products elsewhere.

Robust exports remained a bright spot in the cloudy economic picture despite the bruising trade war.

China’s trade surplus hit a record US$1.2 trillion last year, with officials lauding a “new historical high” filled by other trade partners.

Shipments to the ASEAN rose 13.4 percent year-on-year, while exports to Africa surged 25.8 percent and those to the EU were up 8.4 percent.


content_text:
IMF lifts 2026 global growth forecast but flags AI, trade risks

The IMF yesterday upgraded its global growth forecast for this year, citing a boost from tech investments but warning that a reevaluation of artificial intelligence (AI) productivity gains or renewed trade tensions could bring disruptions.

World economic growth is projected to hold steady at 3.3 percent this year, the IMF said, raising its forecast by 0.2 percentage points from October last year. This would be the same pace of growth as last year.

But the Washington-based lender cautioned in its World Economic Outlook update that “the resilience exhibited so far is driven largely by a few sectors,” signaling vulnerability.

IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, second left, speaks during the World Economic Outlook press briefing in Washington DC on Oct. 14 last year. Photo: Elizabeth Frantz, Reuters

While the global economy appears to be “shaking off the trade and tariff disruptions of 2025,” this does not mean they had no impact, IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said.

Instead, the challenges were offset by “tailwinds from the AI and tech investment boom,” he told reporters.

This was especially true in North America and Asia, the IMF said.

The private sector also showed adaptability in dealing with trade shocks, while fiscal and monetary support provided boosts.

Since returning to the White House in January last year, US President Donald Trump unleashed sweeping tariffs that hit allies and competitors alike, roiling financial markets and supply chains while causing trade tensions to rocket.

But temperatures have cooled over the year as the Trump administration struck tariff deals with several partners and crucially reached a temporary truce with the world’s second-biggest economy, China.

For now, global inflation is expected to drop from an estimated 4.1 percent last year to 3.8 percent this year.

Nonetheless, the IMF said trade policy uncertainty remains much higher than in January last year and there could still be occasional flare-ups.

The US Supreme Court is also due to rule on the legality of Trump’s use of emergency economic powers to impose tariffs on goods from virtually all trading partners.

The high court is widely expected to deliver a decision early this year, the fund said.

The strikedown of some duties would “inject another dose of trade policy uncertainty into the global economy,” Gourinchas added.

One concern is how Trump could tap other legal authorities to reimpose tariffs. Another issue is how the court ruling would impact government revenues, and therefore fiscal policies, he added.

Besides trade, the AI boom pushing the global economy forward comes with its own risks, Gourinchas said.

He flagged the risk of a “market correction” if expectations about AI gains, productivity and profitability are not realized.

A major catalyst of recent Wall Street stock records has been bullish sentiment about AI.

However, if growth due to AI turns out to be unrealistic, a big drop in the stock market — a correction — could damage the economy if consumers pull back.

The pickup in tech investment and expenditure was estimated to add around 0.3 percentage points to average annualized US GDP growth in the first three quarters of last year.

This offset a drag from the lengthy government shutdown late in the year.

Gourinchas noted the divergence between the US — which is seeing a jump in AI tech investment — and other advanced economies.

The IMF estimates US growth at 2.4 percent this year, 0.3 percentage points higher than predicted in October.

In contrast, it expects euro area growth of 1.3 percent, and a slower pace in Japan.

Growth in China and India is also “relatively strong” compared with other emerging markets, Gourinchas said.

Most of the upward revision in global growth this time was accounted for by the US and China, the IMF said.

Looking ahead, Gourinchas stressed the need for central bank independence, so that they can pursue their mandate of price stability and financial stability.

He did not comment on an ongoing US Department of Justice probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

But he noted that the importance of the US dollar for the international monetary system means it is “even more important” the Fed is able to do its job and do it well.


title: Bowling for peanuts

content_text: Large and small inflatables of Peanuts characters Snoopy, Olaf and Woodstock are displayed in the park next to the Taichung City Hall yesterday. The inflatables will stay at the site until Feb. 22 as the Taichung Transportation Bureau uses the popular characters to promote traffic safety this year.


content_text:
Taiwan last week finally reached a trade agreement with the US, reducing tariffs on Taiwanese goods to 15 percent, without stacking them on existing levies, from the 20 percent rate announced by US President Donald Trump’s administration in August last year.

Taiwan also became the first country to secure most-favored-nation treatment for semiconductor and related suppliers under Section 232 of the US Trade Expansion Act.

In return, Taiwanese chipmakers, electronics manufacturing service providers and other technology companies would invest US$250 billion in the US, while the government would provide credit guarantees of up to US$250 billion to support Taiwanese firms that invest, the Executive Yuan said on Friday.

A 15 percent tariff without stacking levies brings Taiwan’s rate in line with those of Japan and South Korea, placing local non-tech sectors on an equal footing with theirs and making them more competitive. It is also lower than the 19 percent tariff that Thailand and Cambodia face, Vietnam’s 20 percent, not to mention China’s 47 percent.

Moreover, securing most-favored-nation treatment for many products in the first wave of Section 232 tariffs significantly mitigates the impact on non-electronics industries and greatly reduces policy uncertainty over a US probe into Taiwan’s semiconductor and information and communications technology industries.

Taiwan’s semiconductor and related electronics sectors would benefit the most under the latest trade deal. Based on the agreement, Taiwanese chipmakers investing in the US would be eligible for zero tariffs on their goods equivalent to 2.5 times their planned capacity under construction and 1.5 times their new capacity after completion.

Several non-electronics industries, such as makers of auto parts, machine tools, automation products, electrical equipment, wood furniture and aerospace components, would also benefit from the tariff reduction and the preferential Section 232 tariffs.

However, industries that have already relocated their production out of Taiwan, such as those that produce garments, footwear and curtains, would see no impact from the deal.

The agreement would also see US companies expand investment in Taiwan’s semiconductor, artificial intelligence, defense, drones, robotics, quantum technology and biotechnology industries, while Taiwanese companies, led by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, would be allowed to follow their own plans for investing in the US and entering the supply chains there based on the so-called Taiwan model.

As Washington’s intention is ultimately to build a semiconductor supply chain in the US, Taiwan could leverage its sizeable investment in the US to gain a security guarantee from Washington against a potential Chinese military invasion.

While US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, in an interview with CNBC last week, said that Washington’s goal is to bring 40 percent of Taiwan’s semiconductor supply chain and production capacity to the US, experts called it unrealistic, as establishing a substantial semiconductor supply chain in the US would take decades and could be extremely costly.

Taiwan needs to set up procedures and regulations to ensure that companies investing in the US are increasing their investments at home, too, so that the nation’s status as a global semiconductor production base would not be undermined and domestic industries would not be hollowed out.

The government’s trade negotiation team successfully leveraged Taiwan’s semiconductor prowess and the example of a “Taiwan model” to create a more favorable tariff structure for Taiwanese firms following months of relentless talks with Washington. The deal also helps reduce Taiwan’s security anxieties and maintain the nation’s sovereignty.

However, as local farmers and automakers, among others, are still worried that Taiwan might have to further open its domestic market as part of the trade deal, and fear that increasing imports of agricultural products and vehicles from the US, possibly with zero tariffs, could impact their livelihoods, the government needs to address the issue as soon as possible and inform the public once a formal Taiwan-US trade agreement is signed.

Instead of putting measures in place to support tariff-affected industries in the near term, the government must develop plans for accelerating their domestic upgrades in the medium to long term.

title: EDITORIAL: US trade deal just the beginning


content_text:
RISK Initiative: for a resilient undersea cable security network

In the past few years, a number of undersea cables and key energy pipelines across Europe and the northern Atlantic region have been sabotaged, putting governments on high alert. Cable sabotage has occurred in Asia and Pacific Island nations, resulting in the development of emergency backup and response mechanisms.

Such matters have repeatedly reminded us that in this digital era, it is not only data centers that support global operations; a network of cables stretching thousands of kilometers deep under the sea is crucial. The survival of many nations depends on the power lines.

Whoever controls the flow of information can influence how the world operates. And whoever controls energy and power can decide the fate of nations. Undersea cables are an extremely crucial, yet often overlooked, part of the infrastructure making up today’s world.

UNDERSEA CABLE SECURITY IS A NATIONAL SECURITY AND GEOPOLITICAL CONCERN

A shift has occurred in the perception of undersea cables — especially for Taiwan, which relies heavily on undersea communications and power lines to support its digital economy and citizens’ livelihoods. The security of undersea cables is not only a technological and industrial issue; undersea cables are a strategic asset of great importance to national security, resilience and geopolitics.

Several cases of damage to undersea cables have occurred in the waters surrounding Taiwan, particularly the Taiwan Strait, with such frequency that they have attracted significant attention and shown that ongoing risks to such cables continue to rise.

Repeated damage occurred early last year. International cables in the waters off Keelung were damaged by the Shunxing 39, a Cameroon-flagged freighter with Chinese ties. Meanwhile, the Taiwan-Penghu No. 3 undersea cable was cut by the Hong Tai 58, a Togo-flagged cargo ship operated with Chinese backing.

As a means of engaging in gray-zone harassment and hybrid threats, damaging undersea cables is low-cost, but has a high-impact on the functioning of society and affects a nation’s domestic and overseas linkages.

UN RESOLUTION

Even more alarmingly, in the political and legal domains, China is misrepresenting UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 in an attempt to forcibly link this issue with that of its so-called “one China principle.” It is suppressing Taiwan’s international participation and leaning hard on other nations with the intention of isolating Taiwan while creating a legal basis for a future invasion of Taiwan.

At the same time, through a range of methods taking place in the skies, and above and below the sea, China is unilaterally changing the “status quo” across the Taiwan Strait.

In the air, China has unilaterally imposed new flight routes and carried out military exercises in a bid to strangle Taiwan’s air links with the outside world. At sea, China aims to block freedom of navigation operations conducted by foreign warships and make the Taiwan Strait its own internal waters, which would impact global seaborne commerce. And under the sea, through its efforts to cut off Taiwan proper from the nation’s outlying islands, and even to sever Taiwan’s international undersea cable connections, China is attempting to impede the flow of information and capital.

These actions not only threaten Taiwan’s security, but pose huge risks to regional stability and worldwide digital networks. Taiwan serves as a key link in global supply chains. Severing any of Taiwan’s links to the outside world would not just leave Taiwan isolated; it could break connections between various locations across the world, generating massive global upheaval. Indeed, damage to undersea cables and the effect on capital and information flows could generate a damaging shock, impacting the highly digitalized, information-oriented global economic system.

RESPONDING TO RISKS WITH INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORKS: TRANSFORMING TAIWAN’S EXPERIENCE INTO INTERNATIONAL SOLUTIONS

In facing China’s increasing use of gray-zone tactics, which aim to disrupt the international order and threaten the security of critical infrastructure, Taiwan has chosen to respond to the risks head-on through institutional frameworks and cooperation.

The Legislative Yuan has passed the third reading of amendments to seven laws put forward by the Executive Yuan designed to comprehensively strengthen the protection, management and related enforcement mechanisms of undersea cables and pipelines.

These legal measures could serve to deter malicious damage to and regulatory violations of undersea cables, addressing long-standing security challenges while underscoring the government’s commitment to undersea cable security as a core pillar of national resilience.

In parallel, Taiwan is exploring ways to translate its own experience into policy solutions that can be shared with the global community. In October last year, at the Taiwan-Europe Undersea Cable Security Forum cohosted by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the European chapter of the Formosa Club, I proposed the RISK Management Initiative on International Undersea Cables.

The initiative received support from 42 parliamentarians representing 18 European countries and was incorporated into the joint statement adopted at the Formosa Club’s annual summit in Taipei. This move symbolized Taiwan’s evolution from a party affected by related issues into a proactive actor proposing institutional initiatives.

THE RISK INITIATIVE: BUILDING A MORE RESILIENT INTERNATIONAL UNDERSEA CABLE SECURITY NETWORK

The RISK Initiative focuses on addressing risk through the provision of four mutually supportive policy goals:

First, risk mitigation, which seeks to enhance emergency repair and backup capabilities through transnational coordination;

Second, information sharing, which involves establishing threat intelligence exchanges and early warning mechanisms;

Third, systemic reform, which aims to review deficiencies in international and domestic regulations when addressing hybrid threats;

Fourth, knowledge building, which focuses on comprehensively improving protection and resilience through professional training and practical exchanges at an international level.

These four pillars, which are interconnected and mutually reinforcing, have the objective of creating a more resilient and sustainable international undersea cable security network.

To translate vision into action, Taiwan has designed a multilayered, cooperative pathway that promotes institutional frameworks and substantive cooperation. We look forward to working with like-minded partners to build a resilient undersea cable security network and ensure that undersea cables become a commonly protected global public good rather than a point of vulnerability for democratic societies.

At a parliamentary level, we are communicating closely with such countries as the US, Japan and Australia, as well as European nations, through our overseas missions, securing political support and promoting the inclusion of undersea cable security in pro-Taiwan resolutions. This would allow the issue to become part of a policy agenda common to democratic partners.

At the administrative and law enforcement levels, we seek to work with international coast guard and undersea cable authorities to conduct exchanges and establish long-term cooperation mechanisms.

This includes the exchange of information on substandard vessels and the sharing of intelligence regarding vulnerable cables, which would enhance early warning and response capabilities. It involves promoting the development and application of technologies that can facilitate the maintenance of undersea cable security and utilizing technology to assist in law enforcement.

In terms of policy and institutional development, Taiwan is placing the RISK Initiative at the center of its efforts, collaborating with domestic and international think tanks and experts to deepen consensus through seminars and professional exchanges.

By leveraging the Global Cooperation and Training Framework, Taiwan can call on experts from a range of nations to jointly examine tangible measures for preventing and mitigating risks to undersea cables.

We are facilitating overseas exchanges for our experts and academics so that they can share their experiences in maintenance, repair and law enforcement with like-minded partners, laying a solid foundation of expertise and trust needed for long-term cooperation.

SAFEGUARDING UNDERSEA CABLES ENSURES THE CONNECTIVITY OF THE DEMOCRATIC COMMUNITY

In the past few years, democracies — including countries in the EU, the UK, the US, Japan and Australia — have all identified undersea cables as critical infrastructure that is vital to national security and the global digital order. They have sought to strengthen related protections through legislation, action plans and transnational cooperation.

Undersea cables are more than merely infrastructure; they are a public good within the global digital economy and serve as lifelines in connecting democratic societies. Taiwan is willing and able to serve as a pivotal node within the global undersea cable security network, and work hand in hand with like-minded partners to jointly safeguard these critical arteries that sustain operations throughout the world.

Lin Chia-lung is the minister of foreign affairs.


title: Cold so great, it gets a name

content_text:
As we enter layue (蠟月), or the last month of the lunar year, a profound, clarifying chill is setting in. It is dahan (大寒), the 24th and final act in the ancient, elegant drama of the traditional East Asian lunisolar calendar. It typically arrives around Jan. 20, a punctuation mark of deep cold before the turn, signaling that the Spring Festival is just around the corner.

AGRARIAN GUIDE

This calendar, a system of 24 solar terms (half-month periods), is one of humanity’s most poetic exercises in timekeeping. Forged by agrarian astronomers millennia ago, it slices the sun’s journey into equal segments, naming not just seasons, but the subtle, specific moods of the natural world, such as jingzhe (驚蟄, emergence from hibernation), guyu (穀雨, grain rain) and chushu (處暑, limit of heat).

It guided ancient farmers with astonishing precision and shaped a culture’s eating, healing and philosophizing, all under the principle of living in sync with Heaven and Earth. In 2016, UNESCO rightly inscribed it as an intangible cultural heritage.

Dahan translates simply, yet problematically, as “great cold.” Or is it “greater cold”? “Major cold”? “Severe cold”? Consult different authorities — dictionaries, encyclopedias, meteorologists — and you will get varying answers. This linguistic scramble over a single word reveals the delightful difficulty of packaging a dense cultural concept for foreign tongues.

A Tang Dynasty poet captured its essence better than any dictionary: “In dahan, stay close to the fire. Don’t open the door without cause.”

DEEP COLD

The name itself feels like an incantation that conjures the very chill it describes — a dry, still, penetrating cold that seems to leech warmth from memory itself. It is the cold of a bare branch against a slate sky, of breath hanging crystalline in the air.

However, its true meaning is not found on a thermometer. Dahan is a turning point. It is the final note of winter’s movement, the moment when the silence is fullest, right before the first, faint callback of life. It is the ultimate yin — the dark, cold, latent feminine principle in Chinese cosmology — pregnant with its imminent opposite, yang.

As folk wisdom goes: Dahan to the extreme brings the turn to warmth. After hardship, fortune arrives.

This idea — that the seed of spring is hidden in the heart of deep winter — is what makes the term so resonant and so untidy to translate. “Great cold” feels merely descriptive. “Severe cold” is purely meteorological. They miss the philosophical heft, the sense of a destined, cyclical climax.

Perhaps the best approach is the one this system itself teaches: Embrace duality. Present the term as dahan (major cold), allowing the evocative sound of the original to lead, followed by a functional translation. It acknowledges that some concepts must travel with a bit of their native soil still clinging to the roots.

PROMISE

For now, as the dahan chill holds the land, the promise is absolute. The next solar term, only two weeks away, is lichun (立春, beginning of spring). The cycle, as it always has, would begin anew.

So let us appreciate this great, this greater, this major, this severe cold. It is not an end, but a gathering. A deep breath held before the exhalation of green and growth. The stillness, after all, is where the waiting seeds dream.

Hugo Tseng has a doctorate in linguistics, and is a lexicographer and former chair of Soochow University’s English Department.


content_text:
In the US’ National Security Strategy (NSS) report released last month, US President Donald Trump offered his interpretation of the Monroe Doctrine. The “Trump Corollary,” presented on page 15, is a distinctly aggressive rebranding of the more than 200-year-old foreign policy position. Beyond reasserting the sovereignty of the western hemisphere against foreign intervention, the document centers on energy and strategic assets, and attempts to redraw the map of the geopolitical landscape more broadly. It is clear that Trump no longer sees the western hemisphere as a peaceful backyard, but rather as the frontier of a new Cold War. In particular,

By Liao Ming-hui 廖明輝

title: EDITORIAL CARTOON


content_text:
US action in Venezuela — and possibly Iran — is unlikely to alter trading relationships or diplomatic alliances

From a certain angle, US President Donald Trump is in a matter of weeks doing what other leaders could never have dreamed about: Assembling an oil cartel with the sway to rival OPEC, and giving himself a kill switch for the energy-importing economy of the US’ prime geopolitical rival, China.

Combine Trump’s supposed hegemony over the Americas since the capture of former Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro on Jan. 3 with control over a post-revolution Iran, and you are at about 42 percent of global oil production. Add to that the fact that China is the biggest importer of both Venezuelan and Iranian oil, and it looks like Beijing is suddenly vulnerable.

Not so fast. The bigger lesson from Washington’s actions in Venezuela, and from any hypothetical backing of regime change in Iran, is that diplomatic actions might change leaders, but they rarely alter the underlying relationships between oil producers and their customers. Those trading relationships, in turn, influence diplomatic alliances. Since World War II, politicians who have sought to control these flows have almost always failed.

As we have previously written, China will be central to the next act in Venezuela’s drama. Beijing plays a similar, if not more important role for Iran, and it is one that is unlikely to be diminished by Trump’s latest geopolitical drama.

Even if relations with the US or other Western powers were to improve under a different leadership in Tehran — a very big if — Iran is unlikely to abandon its strategic alignment with China. The two are tied together in a loose web of diplomatic, economic and security networks. They have participated in military exercises, and in 2021 signed a pact outlining US$400 billion of potential Chinese investments over 25 years, providing a lifeline for Iran in the face of international sanctions.

Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) has been a huge backer of Tehran’s global south ambitions, encouraging it to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in 2023. China also supported its accession to the expanded BRICS bloc, in an attempt to cement groupings that can help Beijing challenge US power in the international arena.

On Jan. 9, warships from Iran, China, South Africa and the United Arab Emirates joined a weeklong naval exercises off the coast of South Africa.

Pragmatism defines much of Beijing’s relationship with Tehran. Chinese officials last week reaffirmed their long-standing position of backing stability in Iran, but nothing beyond a few words of concern in response to protests that have posed the biggest challenge to the Islamic republic since it was founded in 1979.

Beijing has its own problems with imposing geopolitical hegemony through military means, of course. It has adopted an aggressive stance across the region, most overtly, perhaps, toward Taiwan. That hardly makes it a paragon of a rules-based order and multilateral approach to international affairs. Still, Trump’s own swagger, made real in US foreign policy, has given China an opportunity to paint the US as an unreliable, predatory force in the world and itself as the rational actor.

There is also historical precedent for why a longer-term chill between Tehran and Beijing on the oil front is unlikely. For all the fears of petroleum being used as a geopolitical weapon, occasions when fossil fuel producers have frozen out their customers for political reasons are few and far between. The 1973 Arab oil embargo is a rare exception, but the failure of its stated aim — to end Western oil importers’ military support for Israel — illustrates why most have tended to steer clear of ideological fights.

The US continued importing oil from Iran on and off for eight years after the Islamic Revolution, and the EU is not set to completely phase out Russian gas imports until late next year, five years after Moscow invaded Ukraine. Far from getting shut out of Venezuela’s post-Maduro oil exports, China is already being lined up as a principal customer by commodity traders Trafigura Group and Vitol Group.

Expect more of the same in the coming months. Once upon a time, Washington’s restrictions on Asian oil trade could bring an aspiring hegemon to its knees. That is roughly what happened the one time in history when an oil embargo had a genuinely decisive geopolitical impact: In 1941, when the US provided about 90 percent of Japan’s fuel supplies and halted exports in response to its invasion of Southeast Asia, in turn precipitating the attack on Pearl Harbor.

Such leverage is beyond Trump’s grasp this time around. Russia is the only country that provides more than 10 percent of China’s crude, and most major suppliers are aspiring middle powers that would not be easily persuaded to do his bidding. Switching away from oil is another way of diversifying supplies: Electric vehicles and trucks would eliminate about 1.76 million barrels of Chinese oil demand this year, roughly equivalent to every barrel imported from Iran and Venezuela put together.

This slippery liquid always finds its level and can seep through the narrowest cracks to connect buyers with sellers. If you are betting that the law of trade and geopolitics has been upended, you might find yourself disappointed.

Karishma Vaswani is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Asia politics with a special focus on China. Previously, she was the BBC’s lead Asia presenter and worked for the BBC across Asia and South Asia for two decades. David Fickling is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering climate change and energy. Previously, he worked for Bloomberg News, the Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times. This column reflects the personal views of the author and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

title: China need not fear  the new US oil order


title: Brazil loser in Latin America’s geopolitical reshuffle

content_text:
Brasilia failed to contain or hold Chavismo accountable — at enormous cost to human suffering, regional stability and migration flows

Brazil’s leadership ambitions are having a bad moment.

The White House’s historic intervention in Venezuela has exposed the geopolitical impotence of Latin America’s largest economy. The US not only removed the leader of a South American country in a matter of hours without suffering a single casualty;it effectively installed a protectorate in a nation that shares a 2,200km border with Brazil.

Brasilia’s response amounted to little more than a joint communique with five ideological allies, expressing “deep concern” over the unilateral military incursion. Careful words, private grudges, minimal action.

It did not have to be this way. If the US felt emboldened to carry out an unprecedented operation in Venezuela, disregarding diplomacy and international law, it was partly because Brazil spent years misreading the crisis and failing to act on the most severe conflict Latin America has faced this century, unfolding right on its northern border. As the region’s self-styled leader and an aspiring global power, Brazil should have been at the forefront of efforts to contain Chavismo and hold it accountable for its blatant human rights abuses and systematic dismantling of democracy. Instead, it allowed an increasingly authoritarian regime to entrench itself, at enormous cost to regional stability, human suffering and migration flows.

At times, Brazil did more than tactically stand aside; it enabled the Caracas regime. The most egregious case came in May 2023, when Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva rolled out the red carpet for then-Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, dismissing accusations of dictatorship as mere “narrative” designed to weaken the Caracas government.

Despite boasting the region’s most sophisticated diplomatic corps, deep institutional knowledge of Venezuela and extensive regional networks, Lula’s partisan foreign policy — more attuned to domestic politics and his leftist base than to democratic principles — proved to be a spectacular failure. Over time, even distant mediators, such as Norway or Qatar, enjoyed greater credibility as honest brokers in Venezuela than Brazil did.

Fast forward to 2026, it is no exaggeration to say that Brazil, perhaps alongside Cuba, has emerged as the biggest loser from the geopolitical reshuffle orchestrated by US President Donald Trump’s White House. Today, Brasilia is little more than a bystander to a complex nation-building experiment unfolding across its Amazonian frontier, with little influence and even less say.

For a country that aspires to a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, this diminished role should provoke uncomfortable soul-searching. Over the past two decades, Brazil invested heavily in grand, but toothless diplomatic projects, such as the BRICS, embraced lofty slogans about the “global south” and hosted every flashy international event from the Olympics to climate summits. Yet it neglected the most basic requirement of leadership: keeping its own neighborhood in order.

Worse still, Brasilia conveniently ignored decades of regional institutional work aimed at offering collective responses to democratic backsliding. Indeed, as others have noted, Brazil led much of the region’s left in camouflaging an indifference to authoritarian drift with respect for sovereignty, ultimately paving the way for direct US intervention.

This moral blunder is especially regrettable, because Brazil has much to offer in reshaping global governance: respect for institutional norms and democratic values, a capable state bureaucracy, a tradition of peaceful dispute resolution and vast strategic resources. However, multilateralism cannot serve as an excuse for paralysis or, worse, as cover for criminal regimes, as Venezuela repeatedly demonstrated.

Trump’s approach might be questionable. Yet to many in the region, especially the millions of long-suffering Venezuelans, Washington is at least proposing a path forward. Brazil, by contrast, offered only more of the status quo and the pretense that the conflict did not exist. More troubling still is the suspicion that some policymakers are quietly rooting for Trump’s strategy to fail, allowing Brazil to claw back relevance by default. That would only compound the original error.

A democratic, prosperous and free Venezuela should be among Brazil’s top priorities, regardless of petty geopolitical calculations. Helping achieve that goal would raise Brazil’s standing in the region — not diminish it.

So, what comes next? Notably, Lula has chosen caution, focusing on the EU-Mercosur free-trade deal and restraining his long-standing instinct to tap into anti-US rhetoric even as elections loom. Whether by design or circumstance, Trump’s decision to make peace with the Brazilian leader weeks before his Venezuela offensive proved strategically astute. Lula now finds himself boxed in, unable to confront Washington without jeopardizing a fragile detente. In that sense, Trump has delivered a salutary lesson in pragmatism to the octogenarian former union leader, who is often rigid in foreign affairs.

For now, Brasilia should keep its head down and return to its traditional foreign-policy strengths: defending democracy while pushing for a meaningful reform of the international system at a moment when multilateralism faces its greatest test since World War II. As Bruna Santos, director of the Brazil Program at the Inter-American Dialogue, told me: Brazil has not only lost influence and coordination capacity in the region; the risks of strategic non-alignment vis-a-vis Washington have also increased.

“It is in Brazil’s own interest to show that multilateralism needs reform, including at the UN Security Council,” she said.

Brazil is not alone in falling short in this tragedy; other Latin American countries share responsibility. However, leadership is not declared, it is earned. And in Venezuela, Brazil squandered its clearest opportunity in a generation to prove it deserved that distinction.

JP Spinetto is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Latin American business, economic affairs and politics. He was previously Bloomberg News’ managing editor for economics and government in the region. This column reflects the personal views of the author and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.


title: India’s scrapping of the right to work risks a rural revolt

content_text:
The prime minister courts trouble by hollowing out a globally unique program allowing the poor to demand and get jobs, empowering women in rural areas

Few countries have attempted anything as ambitious as India’s rural jobs guarantee. Under the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act, any adult in the countryside who demanded work was entitled to a job on local public works within 15 days, failing which the government had to pay an unemployment allowance.

Enacted in 2005, the act created the world’s most far-reaching legal right to employment. It generates 2 billion person-days of work a year for about 50 million households. More than half of all workers were women, and about 40 percent came from Dalit and tribal communities.

For a country where vast numbers rely on seasonal farm work, the scheme mattered. It stabilized incomes, raised rural wages, expanded women’s bargaining power and reduced internal migration. Households could demand up to 100 days of paid work at a statutory minimum wage, turning employment into an enforceable right. The World Bank derided it as a “barrier to development” in 2009 — but praised it as “stellar” five years later.

However, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has replaced this rights-based system with a centrally managed welfare scheme, VB-G RAM G, a shift opposed by the Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz and the inequality academic Thomas Piketty.

Modi usually shrugs off criticism, but this time, he might have overreached. As the employment guarantee act architect Jean Dreze said, the new plan centralizes power while offloading responsibility. The central government gains discretion over when and where the scheme applies, caps funding and shifts financial risk to Indian states. If the scheme is “switched off,” failure to provide work is no longer illegal.

Dreze is right to say that this is “like providing a work guarantee without any guarantee that the guarantee applies.” The old system had its flaws: inefficiency, underfunding, corruption — but the answer is reform, not repeal. Poorer states, facing new liabilities, might simply ration access to avoid paying out.

Remarkably, Modi is attempting to prevail with arguments that have failed him before. His government in 2020 passed three “farm bills” that aimed to shift Indian agriculture away from a state-led administered-price system toward a more market-based model. They were repealed in 2021 after year-long protests. Farmers were furious that protections they relied on were taken away without consultation. Modi miscalculated in thinking that farmers saw market “freedoms” as opportunities. Repeating this with rural jobs seems foolhardy.

When monsoons fail, employment guarantees become crisis buffers. Indian states such as Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra are drought-prone and electorally pivotal. Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh vote in 2028 in regional polls; Maharashtra follows in 2029. A weak monsoon in 2026-2027 would allow rural distress to build up under a limited and discretionary scheme. Climate shocks could translate into electoral judgments by polling day. Under the old system, job demand automatically expanded supply, diffusing blame; under Modi’s plans, the finger would point squarely at Delhi.

Dreze is backing grassroots protests, insisting the right to work still exists and must be honoured. Its potency lies with female workers who learned, through the employment guarantee act, to claim wages and work — not charity.

As with the farm protests, women’s presence turns technocratic disputes into moral reckonings. If work is denied because of Modi’s new caps, discontent in the courts, states and streets could again align, as it did before the farm bills fell.